چه نسبتی از بیماران کووید ۱۹ بدون علامتاند؟
Everywhere we look, we cannot get a handle on the essential facts or we get ۲ completely different answers to the same question. So, we thought we would try to answer an important question: what is the proportion of people with SARS-COV-۲ who are asymptomatic?
چه نسبتی از بیماران کووید ۱۹ بدون علامتاند؟
Everywhere we look, we cannot get a handle on the essential facts or we get ۲ completely different answers to the same question. So, we thought we would try to answer an important question: what is the proportion of people with SARS-COV-۲ who are asymptomatic?
از کرونا بیشتر بدانید
COVID-۱۹: What proportion are asymptomatic?
Carl Heneghan, Jon Brassey, Tom Jefferson
Everywhere we look, we cannot get a handle on the essential facts or we get ۲ completely different answers to the same question. So, we thought we would try to answer an important question: what is the proportion of people with SARS-COV-۲ who are asymptomatic?
What did we learn (see the table for the analysis):
-That between ۵% and ۸۰% of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-۲ may be asymptomatic
-That symptom-based screening will miss cases, perhaps a lot of them
-That some asymptomatic cases will become symptomatic over the next week (sometimes known as “pre-symptomatics”)
-That children and young adults can be asymptomatic
We also learnt that there is not a single reliable study to determine the number of asymptotics. It is likely we will only learn the true extent once population based antibody testing is undertaken.
| Setting | Proportion | Comment |
| Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan (n=-۶۳۴ tested positive). [۱] |
۱۸% (۹۵% credible interval ۱۶%-۲۰%). |
Most infections occurred before the quarantine start. |
| Vo’Euganeo, ۵۰ km west of Venice, Italian village [۲] | ۵۰% to ۷۵%—were asymptomatic | In an open letter to the authorities in the Tuscany region |
| MERS-CoV [۳] | Increased from ۰% to ۲۹% over time | As the MERS-CoV progressed over time there was more identification of asymptomatic individuals due to increased surveillance and contacts testing. |
| ۳۲۸ adults in Shanghai [۴] | ۱۳ (۴%) patients were asymptomatic | |
| Japanese nationals evacuated from Wuhan (n=۵۶۵) [۵] | ۳۱% (۹۵% CI: ۷.۷% to ۵۴%) | Based on temperature screening before disembarkation, interviews on symptoms including fever, cough, and non-specific symptoms |
| ۲۳ Residents of a Long-Term Care Nursing Facility King County, Washington[۶] |
۱۰ (۴۳%) had symptoms, and ۱۳ (۵۷%) were asymptomatic. Seven days after testing, ۱۰ of ۱۳ asymptomatics developed symptoms |
Symptom-based screening could fail to identify approximately half of nursing home residents with COVID-۱۹. |
| Airport screening of travellers [۷] | ۱۷% undetectable by typical screening procedures | Based on: A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the ۲۰۱۹ novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: Lancet. ۲۰۲۰;۰(۰):S۰۱۴۰-۶۷۳۶(۲۰)۳۰۱۵۴-۹. |
| Hospitalised in Beijing, China (n=۲۶۲)[۸] | ۱۳ (۵.۰%) asymptomatic cases | |
| ۳۹۱ cases including ۱۴۸ family index cases in Zhejiang Province [۹] | ۵۴ (۱۴%) asymptomatic | higher family secondary attack rate, the secondary attack rate of spouses is higher than other family members. |
| Chinese perspective[۱۰] | Over the past few days, asymptomatic patients were found in many Chinese cities. |
Whether asymptomatic people can transmit SARS‐CoV‐۲ to others is unclear. Another uncertainty is whether those who are asymptomatic can cause large‐scale infections. |
| ۳۶ children, Zhejiang, China [۱۱] | Asymptomatics, ۱۰ (۲۸%) | ۷ had acute upper respiratory symptoms (۱۹%) |
| Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-۱۹ outbreak [۱۲] | The number of asymptomatic and mild cases with subclinical manifestations that probably did not present to hospitals for treatment may be substantial; these cases, which possibly represent the bulk of the COVID-۱۹ infections, remain unrecognized, | |
| ۱۶۶ new infections in China [۱۳] | four-fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate | Numbers quoted not verifiable |
| Nanjing, China (n=۲۴) [۱۴] | ۵ (۲۱%) developed symptoms (fever, cough, fatigue and etc.) during hospitalization. | |
| ۴۵۰ case reports from ۹۳ Chinese cities. [۱۵] | estimate that people who had not yet developed symptoms transmitted around ۱۰% of the cases they studied. | |
| People’s Hospital of Daofu county. Tibetan population (n=۸۳) [۱۶] | Asymptomatic carriers ۲۲% | median age of asymptomatic carriers was ۳۱ years and ۱/۳rd were students, aged <۲۰ years. |
| WHO Q&A:Similarities and differences – COVID-۱۹ and influenza [۱۷] | suggest that ۸۰% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, | |
| Iceland [۱۸] | ۵۰% of the people who tested positive had no symptoms.” | See also: First results of the voluntary screening in Iceland[۱۹] |
| CDC [۲۰] | A significant number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may be as many as ۲۵%. | |
| Interim Clinical Guidance for Management of Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease [۲۱] | Among children in China, illness severity was lower with ۹۴% having asymptomatic, mild or moderate disease, | |
| Northern Italy, ۶۰ volunteer blood donors [۲۲] | ۴۰ (۶۷%) tested positive |
Reference:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-۱۹/covid-۱۹-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/
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